For businesses using platforms like KAKOBUY, accurately forecasting logistics expenses is crucial for financial planning. By leveraging your existing spreadsheet of past shipments, you can transform historical data into a reliable budget for the coming year. Here’s a step-by-step guide.
Step 1: Gather and Clean Your Historical Data
Begin by consolidating your shipment records, ideally from the past 12-24 months, into a single spreadsheet. Essential columns should include:
- Shipment Date:
- Parcel Weight & Dimensions:
- Destination Zone/Country:
- Carrier & Service Level:
- Actual Shipping Fee Paid:
- Parcel Weight & Dimensions:
Clean the data by removing any test shipments, returns, or entries with missing critical information.
Step 2: Analyze and Identify Cost Patterns
Use your spreadsheet's pivot table or chart functions to uncover patterns. Key questions to answer:
- What is the average shipping cost per parcel
- Are there months with consistently higher volume or cost (e.g., holiday seasons)?
- Which destinations or service levels are most frequently used and most expensive?
- Has there been a noticeable cost creep from carrier rate increases?
This analysis reveals the true drivers of your shipping spend.
Step 3: Forecast Next Year's Shipping Volume
Project your business activity for the next year. Consider:
- Sales Growth Forecast:
- Product Mix Changes:
- Market Expansion:
- Product Mix Changes:
Create a monthly volume forecast (number of parcels) based on this growth plan and historical seasonality.
Step 4: Apply the Data to Build Your Budget Model
Now, synthesize the data into a forecasting model. A simple yet effective formula is:
Monthly Cost = (Forecasted # of Parcels) × (Average Cost per Parcel)
For greater accuracy, segment your budget:
- Create categories
- Apply the specific average cost
- Factor in a contingency rate
- Apply the specific average cost
Build this model in a new tab of your spreadsheet to dynamically calculate the annual total.
Step 5: Implement, Monitor, and Refine
Your budget is a living tool. Implement it at the start of the fiscal year, but monitor it quarterly.
- Track Variance:
- Investigate Deviations:
- Adjust Forecasts:
- Investigate Deviations:
Conclusion: Data-Driven Logistics Planning
For a KAKOBUY