Step 1: Structure Your Historical Data
Ensure your spreadsheet includes, at minimum, the following columns for past shipments:
- Shipment Date / Month
- Origin & Destination Ports
- Freight Rate
- Transit Time
- Notes
CNFANS Guide: Tracking Seasonal Shipping Variations for Smarter Purchasing
2026-01-01
Leverage historical data to optimize timing and maximize cost efficiency.
For global sourcing professionals, seasonal shipping variations
The Core Strategy: Data-Driven Purchase Timing
The principle is straightforward: shift non-urgent purchases away from peak shipping seasons to capitalize on lower rates and better service.
How to Implement in Your Spreadsheet
Step 2: Identify Seasonal Patterns
Create pivot charts or line graphs to visualize:
- Rate Fluctuations:
- Transit Time Trends:
Step 3: Define Your "Cost Efficiency Windows"
Analyze your charts to pinpoint 3-4 month "windows"
Step 4: Adjust Purchase & Production Orders
Align your procurement schedule with these windows:
- For Peak Seasons (e.g., Aug-Oct):well in advanceschedule arrivals afterward.
- For Off-Peak Windows:
Step 5: Forecast and Budget
Use the identified patterns to create a more accurate shipping budget. Apply a "peak season multiplier" (e.g., +25%) to purchases that must ship during high-cost periods.
Pro Spreadsheet Tip: Create a Dashboard
Build a summary dashboard tab that displays:
- A color-coded calendar view of "Recommended," "Neutral," and "Avoid" shipping months.
- YTD average freight cost vs. previous year.
- A simple calculator to compare estimated costs for shipping in different months.
Conclusion: Turn Data into Savings
Seasonal shipping variations are predictable. By treating your historical shipping data as a strategic asset, you move from reactive cost absorption to proactive cost management. The CNFANS method emphasizes that the timing of your purchase order can be just as important as the purchase price.