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ACBUY Spreadsheet: How to Predict Next Month's Logistics Costs

2026-01-02

Accurate forecasting of logistics expenses is crucial for maintaining healthy profit margins in international trade. The ACBUY Spreadsheet

The Power of Historical Data Analysis

Historical data is the cornerstone of accurate prediction. By analyzing past trends, seasonality, and cost drivers, you can move from reactive budgeting to proactive financial planning. The ACBUY template helps you structure this analysis systematically.

  • Identify Cost Components:Freight, Customs Duties & Fees, and Storage/Warehousing.
  • Track Key Variables:
  • Note Anomalies:

Step-by-Step Forecasting Process

1. Freight Cost Projection

Using your ACBUY Spreadsheet, calculate the average cost per shipping unit (e.g., per kg or per CBM) for each lane (trade route) over the last 6-12 months. Factor in:

  • Carrier rate trends and announced General Rate Increases (GRIs).
  • Planned shipment volume for the next month.
  • Fuel surcharge (BAF) fluctuations based on current indices.

Formula:Forecasted Freight = (Avg. Rate per Unit * Planned Volume) + Estimated Surcharges

2. Customs Fees Estimation

This requires a stable variable: the duty rate. In your spreadsheet:

  • Confirm the correct HS
  • Apply the duty rate to the forecasted total landed value
  • Add fixed customs processing/brokerage fees, which are often consistent per entry.

Formula:Forecasted Customs = (Duty Rate % * Landed Value) + Fixed Brokerage Fees

3. Storage Costs Calculation

Forecast based on inventory flow:

  • Analyze your historical inventory turnover and average daily storage units.
  • Apply the warehouse's daily or monthly storage rate per unit (pallet, CBM).
  • Account for any planned changes: e.g., bringing in a large shipment mid-month will increase average inventory held.

Formula:Forecasted Storage = (Avg. Daily Inventory Units * Storage Rate per Unit * Days in Month)

Implementing the Forecast in Your ACBUY Spreadsheet

Create dedicated sheets within your workbook:

  1. Data Log:
  2. Analysis Dashboard:
  3. Next Month's Forecast:

Use charts to visualize the trend of each cost component over time, making it easy to spot outliers and confirm the forecast's direction.

Conclusion: From Prediction to Action

The ACBUY Spreadsheet