1. Data Collection & Structure
Create a spreadsheet with columns for: Route (Lane), Date, Spot Rate, Contract Rate, Carrier, and Notes (for events like CNY, hurricanes).
CNFANS Spreadsheet: Tracking Seasonal Trends in Shipping Costs
2026-01-12
A Strategic Guide to Comparing Quarterly Freight Averages and Anticipating Price Fluctuations
For global shippers and supply chain managers, navigating the volatile ocean and air freight markets is a constant challenge. Seasonal trends, capacity crunches, and geopolitical events can cause shipping costs to swing dramatically. The CNFANS Spreadsheet
The Core Concept: Quarterly Averages as Your Compass
The foundation of this methodology is the systematic collection and averaging of freight rates (e.g., Shanghai to Los Angeles, Shenzhen to Rotterdam) on a quarterly basis. Instead of focusing on daily spikes or troughs, the CNFANS Spreadsheet helps you establish a reliable baseline for comparison:
- Q1 (Jan-Mar):
- Q2 (Apr-Jun):
- Q3 (Jul-Sep):peak shipping season, with high demand for back-to-school and holiday inventory pushing rates to annual highs.
- Q4 (Oct-Dec):
- Q2 (Apr-Jun):
How to Build and Use Your CNFANS Tracking Spreadsheet
2. Quarterly Comparison & Trend Visualization
Dedicate a summary sheet to quarterly averages. Use formulas to compare quarters:
Percentage Change = ((Q2 Average - Q1 Average) / Q1 Average) * 100
Create line or bar charts to visualize the cyclical movement of rates on key lanes year-over-year (YoY).
3. Anticipation & Strategic Action
This is where the analysis pays off. By understanding historical patterns, you can:
- Time Your Shipments:
- Negotiate Contracts:
- Budget Accurately:
- Identify Anomalies:
- Negotiate Contracts:
Practical Example: Trans-Pacific Eastbound (China to USA)
Your CNFANS Spreadsheet might reveal this 3-year pattern for Q3 averages:
| Year | Q3 Average Rate (per 40HQ) | Change vs. Q2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $4,200 | +22% |
| 2022 | $5,800 | +18% |
| 2021 | $7,500 | +35% |
Anticipation for 2024:
Conclusion: From Data to Decision
The CNFANS Spreadsheetquarterly freight averages, you equip your business with the foresight to anticipate price fluctuations, optimize timing, negotiate effectively, and protect your bottom line. In an unpredictable world, this disciplined approach provides a clear, data-driven strategy for managing one of your most significant operational expenses—shipping.