Leverage historical data to build accurate shipping budgets and gain a competitive edge.
Introduction
For logistics professionals and business owners, accurately forecasting freight costs is a critical component of financial planning and operational efficiency. At USFANS, we believe that harnessing the power of spreadsheet analytics using your own historical data is one of the most effective and accessible ways to predict future shipping expenses. This guide will walk you through the key steps to transform raw data into actionable budget forecasts.
Step 1: Data Preparation & Structuring
The foundation of any reliable forecast is clean, organized data. Compile your past shipment records into a structured spreadsheet.
- Essential Data Columns:
- Key Metric:Cost per Unit Weight
Sample Column Headers: | Date | Shipment ID | Weight (lbs) | Mode | Destination Zone | Total Cost | Cost per lb |Step 2: Historical Analysis & Trend Identification
Use spreadsheet functions to uncover patterns in your historical data.
- Pivot Tables:
- Visualizations:Cost per Unit Weight
- Seasonality:
- Visualizations:Cost per Unit Weight
Step 3: Building a Forecasting Model
With trends identified, you can project them into the future using built-in spreadsheet tools.
- Linear Regression:FORECAST.LINEAR()TREND()Cost per Unit Weight
- Weighted Averages:SUMPRODUCT()
- Scenario Planning:
- Weighted Averages:SUMPRODUCT()
Example Formula: =FORECAST.LINEAR([Future Date], [Historical Cost per lb Range], [Historical Date Range])Step 4: Integrating Forecasts into Your Budget
Translate your cost-per-weight forecast into a total shipping budget.
- Forecast your expected shipping volume (total weight) for the upcoming period based on sales projections.
- Multiply your forecasted volumepredicted Cost per Unit Weight
- Add a contingency buffer
Total Projected Cost = (Forecasted Total Weight) x (Forecasted Cost per Unit Weight) + Contingency %
USFANS Best Practices for Ongoing Accuracy
- Data Hygiene:
- Cross-Reference:
- External Factors:
- Automate Where Possible:
- Cross-Reference: